
Donald Trump Has a Family Policy. Stop Laughing.
The administration wants (some) people to have more kids.
THE ANIMATING BELIEFS OF THIS ADMINISTRATION range from dangerously wrong to head-spinningly crazy. Tariffs are in the first tranche, along with the myth that NATO has been ripping off the United States for decades, that immigrants commit more crimes than native-born Americans, and that āHe who saves his Country does not violate any Lawā (just to name four). The beliefs that vaccines cause autism, that fluoridated water is a public-health threat, that threatening allies and neighbors enhances national security, and that taxing foreign holders of Treasuries would be a good way to solve the (nonexistent) problem of trade deficits belong in the second tranche.
The Trump administration marries insane ideas to gross, bullying tactics. But even when this administration stumbles upon an idea that is not deranged, illegal, or immoral, it has the capacity to do great harm. Iām thinking of the apparent plans to encourage marriage and motherhood. The administration is reportedly considering proposals to award mothers $5,000 ābaby bonuses,ā to reserve 30 percent of Fulbright scholarships to parents, to reduce the costs of IVF (not clear how), and to fund programs to educate women about ovulation cycles (I kid you not).
Iāve been promoting marriage for decades, not as part of a religious agenda but as the result of studying the social-science literature demonstrating that marriage makes adults happier than non-marriage and that stable, two-parent homes are the best environment for raising children, building thriving neighborhoods, and reducing crime, homelessness, and substance abuse.
The Trump administration cannot adopt this message without turning it rancid. If you hope to persuade people, you must start by showing good faithāthat your intentions for them are good. This crowd has displayed open contempt for womenāat least those women who vote for the other party or otherwise assert their individuality. In light of the presidentās apparent requirement that any nominee for a major cabinet role have at least one serious accusation of sexual misconduct, the vice presidentās sneers about āchildless cat ladiesā seem mild. Matt Gaetz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Pete Hegseth, and Linda McMahon all trailed accusations that would have been disqualifying in any other administration. (Only Gaetz was undone.)
But then, the thrice-married, adulterous president himself has been found legally liable for sexual assault in the E. Jean Carroll case, and has been accused of similar behavior half a dozen or so times by other women. What that may mean is that Trump must convince himself and others that accusations of sexual misconduct are always and everywhere āfake news.ā Also, he just doesnāt give a damn. Trump has endorsed and campaigned with alleged sexual predators ranging from Roy Moore to Herschel Walker, and one of his first acts as president in the second term was to effectuate the release of Andrew and Tristan Tate from custody in Romania on rape and human trafficking charges. (So they can effectuate releases from foreign countries.)
The Trump crowdās approach to fertility is not the joy of parenthood or the warmth of close families. Itās more like the āGreat Replacementā theory made flesh. Give them credit for honesty, I guess. They donāt really claim to be speaking up for family values. Instead, as Elon Musk admits, he wants a ālegionā of offspring ābefore the apocalypseā and is creating a harem to achieve it. He is married, but also father to at least fourteen children by four different women and willing to outsource his semen upon request. āNo romance or anything,ā he explained to one baby mama, ājust sperm.ā
Itās remarkable to consider that Musk is a pinup for the GOP these days. I well remember the party of āfamily values.ā Musk is the most famous progenitor of illegitimacy in the world. (William J. Bennett, call your office.)
THE TRUMP CROWD WORRIES about Americaās declining fertility rate and yet treats immigration as a mortal threat. So when they encourage childbearing, the not-so-veiled subtext is that they want not more babies but more white babies. Perhaps they will begin awarding āMother Heroineā honors as the Soviet Union did, or the āCross of Honorā with which Nazi Germany rewarded fecundity.
You donāt convince women in a free country to have more babies for the sake of the fatherland. If you want to encourage family formation and increase the birth rate, you canāt treat women as breeder mares. It helps to model good behavior. That includes being good husbands who donāt cheat on their wives, good fathers who actually live with their kids, and good parents who donāt commit or condone adultery.
Baby bonuses have been tried in other countries with poor results. Hungary has adopted a suite of policies to support families that are far more generous than what the Trump administration is considering, but the results have been disappointing. Singapore, South Korea, and Russia have seen similar results. Subsidies for babies donāt seem to budge fertility rates much if at all. Polandās program of incentives showed some early success but more recent data found that childbearing is still trending down.
There are many things governments can do to ease the burden on parentsātax credits, parental leave, and banning smartphones in schools, among other ideasābut policymakers should keep their expectations in check about the effect these initiatives will have on fertility. If they just make family life easier and better, thatās a good start. But frankly, weād all be better off if the Trump people stay far away from family policy, lest they besmirch it.